Market Confidence And The Interest Rate

Cross a street, or just sit in a coffee shop close to aThe more risk a bank has to bear, the higher the rate
busy street and you will see them - flapping fromof interest it will charge.
lampposts, splattered on walls or passing in front ofAnother factor that will affect interest rate at this
you on the side of large vehicles. "Buy your firststage is the expected inflation rate. If lenders expect
HOME! Lowest Interest Rate Ever", "Get a personalinflation to go up by 2% the following year, then they
loan. 0.01% above BLR", or even "Zero rate interest.will add the 2% to their original 4%. Hence the final loan
Get your loan now."may carry an interest rate of 6% for the borrower.
The word interest rate seems to be everywhere weThis is because money institutions do not attach value
look. Most of us sort of have an idea of what they areto the numbers, but instead place value on what the
and that is why whenever we start talking about ratesamount can buy or its purchasing power. For example,
of any kind, we tend to use the word "you know..." tobarrel of fried chicken costs $10.00 now but it is
close to our opinions. A few even make do byexpected to increase to $10.20 because of a
comparing the rates of different banks or loan types.projected inflation of 2%. Current value x (Base year +
This one is better than that, or that is the best of all.Inflation rate) = $10.00 x (1 + 0.02) = $10.00 x 1.02 =
But how are these rates defined? Will the definition$10.20
affect how high or low the rates are? Some loansHence if the chicken shop continues to sell the barrel
may even appear to have the same interest rate butat $10.00 the following year, after a 2% inflation, then
if you read the contract clause carefully, you may findthe real value of the barrel has gone down to $9.80
different conditions attached to either one of them.Fixed price x (Base year / new rate) = $10.00 x (1/
Usually what we see appearing on the news are1.02) = $ 9.80
announcements from the Central Bank about whetherFor that reason banks or lending institutions will try to
or not it will be raising rates. This is a big deal toproject the expected inflation into the loan; else the
investors and business owners because it will affectvalue of its purchasing power will decrease over time.
their demand for money. Banks usually add a smallDemand
amount onto the Base Lending Rate, so that they canThe next factor that influences interest rate is market
earn a little for their institution. So when the total rate isdemand. The more people demand money, the higher
4%, a business have to pay 4 cents for every dollar itthe interest rate becomes. Applying the logic of the
borrows for a year, and when the rate is 5%, it meansdemand-supply curve, when the interest rates for
the same business have to pay 5 cents for everylending go up, more people will be willing to invest or
dollar. Consequently, a 4% rate is considered cheaperlend their money. This situation usually happens in times
than a 5% rate.of economic growth, so it is actually a fuel that feeds
So let us look at a few things that will affect intereston itself because during times like these, there are
rate.more jobs, and people who work get better pay so
Central Bankthey have more money to invest. And since
Money, like goods and services, is a form of productcorporations are willing to pay big dividends or interest
supplied by banks and finance institutions to the public.for these kinds of loans, people will put in more money
If, for example, the Central Bank increases interestinto their portfolio.
rate then the demand for loans will fall because it hasHence one of the most crucial role of the Central Bank
become more expensive to borrow money. This isis to control the market movement, so that this fragile
usually done to slow down problems like inflation, whenbalance is not disrupted, and the Securities Commission
prices rises too quickly thus distressing the lifestyles ofis there to make sure that everyone plays fair
the lower income group. However, the bank must alsobecause business is built on trust and contract, and if
keep an eye on the job market while doing this,that structure is perceived to be not in place, the
because if entrepreneurs and businesses stopmarket will suffer, a situation that brings us to the next
expanding or cut down because loans have becomeitem that affects interest rates.
expensive then the job market will be affected.Confidence
On the other hand, the Central Bank can alsoThe fourth factor is how willing people are to 'save'
decrease interest rate, which has the effect oftheir money in the banks, investment or financial
reducing the price of a loan. This is usually done wheninstitutions. All monies saved become part of the
the economy is slow and it needs people to startsupply group. Hence during a recession, interest rates
spending to stimulate it. The reasoning goes that ifmay actually rise when people rush to take out their
rates are lowered then consumers will take out loansmoney from the banks, which has the effect of
to buy items like a house, which will become a catalystreducing the supply of monies in the market. However,
to the construction and real estate industry. Thesethis only happens if the supply drops faster than the
firms in turn will also find it cheap to borrow money todemand for monies. In other words, when people stop
employ more people, thus putting in more spendingentrusting their money to financial institutions, bad things
money in the market.begin to happen.
RiskIn summary,
That is how interest rate manipulation is supposed to- The Central Bank rate is based on economic
work in theory. However, individual rates - home loans,indicators and government policy
car loans, education loans - are dependent on- Risk is based on the financial institutions' product type,
consumer demand as well as their eligibility for themarket trend, client criteria and policy and strategy, as
product. For example similar home loans may havewell as outside influences like inflation
different interest rates because one may require that- Demand is based on consumer assimilation and
the lender buys an insurance to cover default on theproduct promotion
loan, while another demands the home as collateral.- Confidence is based on market conditions, political
The risk of a loan, in terms of the age of lender,situation and rumours which are at times related to
collateral, job prospect of lender and number of yearsfraud.
on the loan will affect the interest rate attached to it.